Univariate Modelling of Energy Consumption in Turkish Agriculture


Unakitan G., TÜRKEKUL B.

ENERGY SOURCES PART B-ECONOMICS PLANNING AND POLICY, vol.9, no.3, pp.284-290, 2014 (Journal Indexed in SCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 9 Issue: 3
  • Publication Date: 2014
  • Doi Number: 10.1080/15567249.2010.492379
  • Title of Journal : ENERGY SOURCES PART B-ECONOMICS PLANNING AND POLICY
  • Page Numbers: pp.284-290

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to estimate future energy consumption in Turkish agriculture. To meet this objective, univariate time-series analysis was used. Annual time series data for diesel consumption in the Turkish agricultural sector for 1970-2006 are used in an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The ARIMA model was determined to be (8,1,13). According to the model's results, diesel consumption is predicted to be over 4 million tonnes in 2020. The average growth rate of diesel consumption is 2.17% per year for the coming years in the agricultural sector.