Computation of loss of load probability using a Markov Chain with two-day memory


ERGONUL A. H. , KAHRAMAN G.

ENERGY EDUCATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY PART A-ENERGY SCIENCE AND RESEARCH, cilt.29, ss.1115-1124, 2012 (SCI İndekslerine Giren Dergi) identifier identifier

  • Cilt numarası: 29 Konu: 2
  • Basım Tarihi: 2012
  • Dergi Adı: ENERGY EDUCATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY PART A-ENERGY SCIENCE AND RESEARCH
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1115-1124

Özet

A Markov chain with two-day memory (W[n]) is described to model the battery energy level of a stand alone photovoltaic system (SAPV) as well as the sequence of change in the battery level within the previous two days. In this way, the one-and two-consecutive day correlations in the insolation data are incorporated in the model. The state transition and the stationary state occupation probabilities of W[n] are found from the insolation data. The loss of load probability (LOLP) of a SAPV at a given daily load is computed as a function of the battery capacity.