From potential forecast to foresight of Turkey's renewable energy with Delphi approach

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Çeliktaş M. S. , Koçar G.

ENERGY, vol.35, pp.1973-1980, 2010 (Journal Indexed in SCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 35
  • Publication Date: 2010
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/
  • Title of Journal : ENERGY
  • Page Numbers: pp.1973-1980
  • Keywords: Renewable energy, Delphi, Technology foresight, Energy, Science, Technology, R&D, TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT, BIOENERGY USE, FUTURE, PROSPECTS, INDIA, METHODOLOGY, GERMANY, OPTIONS, FINLAND


A Delphi Survey is a series of questionnaires that allow experts or people with specific knowledge to develop ideas about potential future developments around an issue. The Delphi questionnaires were developed throughout the foresight process in relation to the responses given by participants in bibliometric and SWOT analysis conducted prior to the Delphi survey. In this paper, Turkey's renewable energy future is evaluated using the Delphi method. A two-round Delphi research study was undertaken to determine and measure the expectations of the sector representatives regarding the foresight of renewable energies. First and second round of Delphi study were carried out by using online surveys. About 382 participants responded in the first round of the Delphi questionnaire yielding a respond rate of 20.1%, whereas 325 participants responded at the second round yielding a respond rate of 84.9%. About 50% of Turkey's energy demand was foresighted to be met by renewable energies around 2030. The results showed that all types of renewable energies would not only provide economic and environmental benefits but also improve living standards. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.