Wine Grape Production in Turkey, Evaluation of Developments in the Wine Sector, and Forecasts

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Güler D. , Saner G. , Şengül Z., Saner C.

Ahi Evran International Conference on Scientific Research, Kırşehir, Turkey, 30 November - 02 December 2021, vol.2, pp.314-326

  • Publication Type: Conference Paper / Full Text
  • Volume: 2
  • City: Kırşehir
  • Country: Turkey
  • Page Numbers: pp.314-326


Turkey is a country that has the potential to compete in the global wine market with its many wine grape varieties and suitable ecology. Grape production area in Turkey is 417,041 hectares and the grapes production is 3.93 million tons. The wine grapes constitutes 12% of the total grapes production. The increase rate in Turkey's total wine production is 6.49% in the 2015-2019 period. Turkey's wine production amount in 2018 is 30,000 tons. In addition, wine export value was $10 million, while the wine import value was also $10 million. Turkey is a country with a very low share in world wine production (0.21%) with a domestic market volume of 64.3 million liters and an export volume of 2.9 million liters.

Turkey's self-sufficiency ratio in wine was calculated as 100.44%, Import Dependency Index as 3.94% and, Exportability Index as 4.38%. A projection of Turkey's wine import and export amounts in 2020-2028 period was prepared with Box-Jenkins estimation model. ARIMA results indicated that the amount of wine export would decline in years. Based on those results, while the export amount of wine was 4,252 tons in 2019, Turkey's wine export amount was estimated to decrease by 5.73%, reaching 3 833 tons in 2020-2024 period. While there are supports such as premium and treatment payments in the European Union, there is not any support for wine grape in Turkey. Wine grape producing farms are small sized in Turkey and grape producers have not a role in determining sales price of wine grape.

Increase of amount of quality and wine grape varieties and especially suitable local grape varieties will enhance Turkey's competitiveness. In order to increase the potential and the competitiveness of the food sector, premiums should be given to the raw material producer and the producer should be encouraged.

Wine routes can be combined with gourmet tourism and healthy aging tourism by mitigating the heavy taxation in the sector. Mitigation of taxation burden can also increase export. It is essential for wine sector to allow promotions in integrated activities such as wine routes (Thracian-vineyard routes, Urla vineyard route/Izmir), eco-tourism, gastronomy tourism, healthy aging tourism, vintage festivals and wine-cheese tasting events.

Keywords: Wine grape, wine, ARIMA, balance analysis, SWOT analysis.