An analysis of tomato prices at wholesale level in Turkey: an application of SARIMA model.


ADANACIOĞLU H. , Yercan M.

CUSTOS E AGRONEGOCIO, cilt.8, ss.52-75, 2012 (SCI İndekslerine Giren Dergi) identifier identifier

  • Cilt numarası: 8 Konu: 4
  • Basım Tarihi: 2012
  • Dergi Adı: CUSTOS E AGRONEGOCIO
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.52-75

Özet

Price forecasting is more acute with vegetable crops particularly tomato due to its highly perishable nature and seasonality. Forecasting tomato prices can provide critical and useful information to tomato growers making production and marketing decisions. The objectives of this paper were to analyse the seasonal price variation of tomato crop and to develop a Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) model to forecast the monthly tomato prices at wholesale level in Antalya, a city located in the Mediterranean Region, Turkey, on the basis of reported prices from 2000 to 2010. In addition, some suggestions were made for the existing and potential tomato producers based on the predicted prices of tomato. The highest tomato prices adjusted seasonaly appear on October. SARIMA (1, 0, 0) (1, 1, 1) 12 model was selected as the most suitable model to forecast of tomato prices. It is clear that tomato prices will not considerably flactuate by 2014 on the real base. It is important to produce tomato with GAP techniques against the price risks.